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The AI-fueled stock market bubble will burst in 2026, according to Capital Economics. The research firm said rising interest rates and higher inflation will weigh down equity valuations. AdvertisementAn artificial intelligence-fueled stock market bubble will burst in 2026, according to Capital Economics. The research firm has said that a stock market bubble, driven by investor excitement towards artificial intelligence, would drive the S&P 500 to as high as 6,500 by 2025, led by technology stocks. The expected bursting of the stock market bubble should lead to a decade of investment returns that favor bonds over stocks.
Persons: , Diana Iovanel, James Reilly, Iovanel, Reilly Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Capital, US
The Fed aims to keep inflation at 2% over the longer run. Meanwhile, among the 20 countries that use the euro, annual consumer price inflation has slowed steadily since the start of the year. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said earlier this month that she would favor a rate hike “should progress on inflation stall or even reverse.”So why does the United States appear to have a bigger inflation problem than Europe? Some economists argue there isn’t actually much daylight between the US and European rates of inflation, pointing to a quirk in the US measures. The measure is designed to track inflation in the real estate market while accounting for the fact that most Americans own their homes.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Paul Donovan, Simon MacAdam, , MacAdam, ” Carsten Brzeski, Janet Yellen, Jim Watson, Brzeski, , ” Davide Oneglia Organizations: London CNN, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, PCE, UBS Global Wealth Management, Capital Economics, ING, CNN, Monetary Fund, Washington, Reuters, Getty, , ECB, Lombard Locations: United States, Europe, Centreville , Maryland, AFP, Russia, Ukraine
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, was down 0.4% at $86.8 per barrel, having earlier spiked more than 3%. The Israeli military has not commented, and Iran has not identified the source of the attack. Iran launched the attack in retaliation for a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Syria earlier this month. Iran is a big oil producer but exports most of its crude to China because of long-standing international sanctions. Mexico also said earlier this month that it would cut back oil exports because of strong domestic demand.
Persons: Brent, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, , ” Neil Shearing, Richard Bronze Organizations: London CNN, CNN, Capital Economics, Organization of, Petroleum, ANZ, United, Nikkei, Kospi, Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Locations: Hong Kong, London, Iranian, Isfahan, East, Iran, Syria, Hormuz, China, United States, Mexico, Asia, Israel, Tel Aviv
A woman in Brazil was arrested after seemingly trying to secure a bank loan using her dead uncle's signature. The woman appeared to bring her uncle's body to the bank in a wheelchair and tried to use it to sign papers. Bank staff became suspicious when the man was unresponsive and his head kept lolling, local media said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA woman in Brazil was arrested on Tuesday on suspicion of theft by fraud and violating a corpse after she brought her uncle to a bank to sign a loan agreement, local media outlets reported.
Persons: , O Dia, Erika de Souza Vieira Nunes, Nunes, that's, Paulo Roberto Braga, Correio Braziliense, Braga, Correio, Christ, Christian Adams, William Jackson Organizations: Bank, Service, Itaú Bank, Economics Locations: Brazil, Rio, Rio de Janeiro, South America
Retail sales jumped 0.7% in March, much higher than expected
  + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Excluding auto-related receipts, retail sales jumped 1.1%, also well ahead of the estimate for a 0.5% increase. An increase in gas prices helped push the headline retail sales number higher, with sales up 2.1% on the month at service stations. Resilient consumer spending has helped keep the economy afloat despite higher interest rates and concerns over stubborn inflation. Consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. economic output so it is critical to continued growth in gross domestic product. Stronger consumer spending could cause the Fed to hold off longer on cuts, said Andrew Hunter, deputy chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
Persons: Dow, Andrew Hunter, Hunter Organizations: Commerce Department, Labor Department, Sporting, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics Locations: Iran, Israel
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewThe market served up another reminder of its indifference to geopolitics on Monday, as traders seemingly shrugged off the potential impact of Iran's strikes on Israel. Signs that the conflict between the two countries won't escalate any further have calmed the market's nerves, XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said on Monday. "The dollar opened the week fairly muted and US bond yields are slightly higher, suggesting that there was no flight to safe havens." Anyone who's been following markets for the past two years won't be surprised at traders' muted reaction to the latest tensions in the Middle East.
Persons: , pare, Kathleen Brooks, Joe Biden, Brooks, who's, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Neal Shearing, Shearing, isn't Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Ali Khamenei —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Brent, West Texas, Business, JPMorgan, Bridgewater, Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Israel, Iran, Tehran, OPEC
LONDON — U.K. gross domestic product rose 0.1% in February, the Office for National Statistics said on Friday, providing another sign of a return to sluggish economic growth this year. The economy contracted in the third and fourth corners of 2023, putting the U.K. in a technical recession. Construction output, which boosted growth at the start of the year, fell 1.9% in February. The reading "all-but confirms the recession ended" last year, Paul Dales, chief U.K. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. British inflation fell more than expected in March, to a nearly two-and-a-half year low of 3.4%.
Persons: Paul Dales Organizations: Street, LONDON, National Statistics, Capital Economics Locations: London, England, U.S
Why gold prices are at record highsFrom central banks to Costco customers, it seems everyone is buying gold these days, reports CNN’s John Towfighi. Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. The Honest Company posted a strong fourth quarter in March.
Persons: , ” Mark Carney, , GFANZ, Jamie Dimon, ” Dimon, JPMorgan, CNN’s John Towfighi, China —, Read, Jessica Alba, Ramishah Maruf, Alba’s, Chuck Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Central Bank, Glasgow Financial Alliance, UN, Bank of England, ECB, MIT, Columbia Business School, Zero Banking Alliance, United Nations, decarbonization, CNN, JPMorgan Chase, State, JPMorgan, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, The Honest, The Honest Company, Honest, Nasdaq Locations: New York, Glasgow, China, India, Turkey
Why gold prices are at record highs
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( John Towfighi | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Central banks see gold as a long-term store of value and a safe haven during times of economic and international turmoil. When interest rates fall, gold prices tend to rise, as bullion becomes more appealing than income-paying assets like bonds. Investors also regard gold as a hedge against inflation, betting bullion will retain its value when prices rise. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 17th straight month in March, adding 160,000 ounces to bring reserves to 72.74 million troy ounces of gold, according to Reuters. Higher oil prices are likely to stoke concerns over inflation, boosting gold prices, according to the UBS research note.
Persons: China —, Ulf Lindahl, Lindahl, Morgan, JP Morgan, Janet Yellen’s, Yellen, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Wells, Richard Galanti, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Federal Reserve, China, People’s Bank of China, Reuters, UBS, Research Associates, Moody’s, of Commerce, Costco Locations: New York, China, India, Turkey, Central, Wells Fargo
The research firm pointed to home inventory levels, which are still near historic lows. Low inventory has helped push home prices higher over the last year as demand remains hot. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementHome prices could continue to climb this year, as the housing market isn't nearly as loose as prospective homebuyers may think, according to Capital Economics. The research firm pointed to the recent uptick in housing inventory, with new listings on the market up 16% compared to levels last year.
Persons: , That's Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Business
Cagla Gurdogan | ReutersTurkey's annual inflation rose to 68.5% for the month of March, an increase on February's 67.1% inflation read, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute's report released Wednesday. Turkey has launched a concerted effort to tackle soaring inflation with interest rate hikes, most recently raising the country's key rate from 45% to 50% in late March. watch nowMuch of the inflation in recent months stems from a significant increase to the minimum wage that Turkey's government mandated for 2024. Economists expect further rate hikes from the central bank will be necessary. Turkey's central bank implemented eight consecutive interest rate hikes from June 2023 to January 2024, totaling a cumulative 3,650 basis points.
Persons: Cagla Gurdogan, Nicholas Farr, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, Umit Bektas Organizations: Reuters, Economics, Istanbul Mayor, Republican People's Party Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Europe, London, Istanbul Metropolitan, Istanbul
London CNN —The global price of oil rose Tuesday to its highest level in seven months, propelled, in part, by concerns that mounting tensions in the Middle East could crimp supply. Brent crude, the world’s oil benchmark, climbed as much as 1.8% to $89 a barrel, the highest since early September, before paring those gains slightly mid-afternoon in Europe. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate crude, the US benchmark, also rose 1.8% to reach a five-month high of $85 a barrel. “You’ve got ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries… Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea,” as well as a “general sense that the Middle East is less stable than it was a year ago,” he told CNN. Geopolitical tensionsWriting about higher oil prices Tuesday, Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at financial services company Hargreaves Lansdown, singled out escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East following an airstrike on Iran’s embassy in Syria Monday.
Persons: Richard Bronze, “ You’ve, , Sophie Lund, Yates, Hargreaves Lansdown, Israel, , specter, Brent, Bill Weatherburn Organizations: London CNN, Brent, West, CNN, Revolutionary Guards, Organization of, Petroleum, Lund, Capital Economics Locations: Europe, West Texas, Brent, United States, Red, , Syria Monday, Iran, Syria, Israel, Tehran, Quds, OPEC, Iran’s, Damascus, Gaza, China
The oversupply of Chinese goods in key industries is stoking tensions between the world’s biggest manufacturer and its major trading partners, including the United States and the European Union. From clothes to carsChina’s exports of low-priced goods got a boost after it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. “What China exports is advanced production capacity that meets the needs of foreign customers,” Xinhua News Agency wrote. US President Joe Biden recently pledged to investigate whether imports of Chinese vehicles pose a national security threat. “But perhaps more importantly, persistent oversupply and low prices of Chinese goods will add to geopolitical tensions and keep the threat of tariffs and counter-tariffs alive,” she wrote in a recent note.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, ” Jens Eskelund, Xi Jinping, Huang Jingwen, ” Eskelund, Brad W, ” Markus W, Voigt, China’s BYD, Warren Buffett, Setser, Li Qiang, , , Joe Biden, Jennifer McKeown, Shawn Deng Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, European Union, European Union Chamber of Commerce, Zero, of, People, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Council, Foreign Relations, World Trade Organization, Aream Group, Tesla, Getty, China Development Forum, Xinhua, Agency, ., EV, European Commission, WTO, Capital Economics Locations: Hong Kong, United States, China, Europe, Beijing, Xinhua, China's Shandong, . Washington, Brussels
The Central Bank of Nigeria on Tuesday hiked its key interest rate by 200 basis points, as Africa's largest economy looks to recover from a historic currency crisis and soaring inflation. The CBN announced that its main monetary policy rate would rise to 24.75% from 22.75%, in its second consecutive hike after February's 400 basis point increase. Governor Olayemi Cardoso told a press conference that policymakers believed they need to continue tightening in order to tame runaway inflation, according to Reuters. "That may be a sign that some MPC members are concerned about the impact on growth from tighter monetary policy," he suggested in a note on Tuesday. Capital Economics expects further tightening, given Governor Cardoso's need to bring down the curtain on the country's inflation and currency crises.
Persons: Olayemi Cardoso, David Omojomolo, Cardoso's Organizations: Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Reuters, Capital Economics, MPC Locations: Africa
The Swiss national flag hangs from the Federal Palace, Switzerland's parliament building, in Bern, Switzerland, on Thursday, Dec. 13, 2018. The Swiss National Bank cut its inflation forecast and showed no inclination of moving off its crisis-era settings, citing the francs strength and mounting global risks. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the Swiss central bank to hold rates at 1.75%. According to the new forecast, inflation is also likely to remain in this range over the next few years," the bank said. Swiss inflation continued to fall in February, hitting 1.2%.
Persons: Stefan Wermuth, Thomas Jordan, SNB Organizations: Swiss, Swiss National Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, Reuters, Capital Economics, Bank, Capital Locations: Switzerland's, Bern, Switzerland, Swiss
Analysts share their views on what we can expect now that Putin has strengthened his grip on power, with the Ukraine war, domestic economic reforms and a possible government reshuffle key factors to watch. Having cleared more of a procedural hurdle than a real test of his policies and popularity in the election, Putin will have more freedom to advance contentious reforms at home, analysts note. Russian President Vladimir Putin delivering an annual address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, at Moscow's Gostiny Dvor, in Moscow on Feb. 29, 2024. MOSCOW, RUSSIA - JANUARY 8: (RUSSIA OUT) A woman eats hot corn while walking along the Red Square near the Kremlin, as air temperatures dropped to -18 degrees Celcius, January,8 2024, in Moscow, Russia. However, with the dynamics of the war now shifting in Russia's favor, Putin might feel more confident with the reshuffle.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Natalia Kolesnikova, Vladimir Putin's, Putin, embolden Putin, Liam Peach, Jose Colon, Anton Siluanov, Tursa, Adeline Van Houtte, Donald Trump, Dmitry Peskov, Peach, he's, Sergei Shoigu, Sergei Lavrov, Mikhail Mishustin, Dmitry Medvedev, Gavriil Organizations: Afp, Getty, Kremlin, Commission, Analysts, U.S, Capital Economics, Anadolu, Anadolu Agency, Economist Intelligence Unit, Federal Assembly, Russian Federation, New, Putin, Security Council, Sputnik Locations: Crimea, Red, Moscow, Russia, Russian, Central, Ukraine, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Eastern Europe, Europe, U.S, Russia's, MOSCOW, RUSSIA
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCapital Economics says strong wage gains mean the Bank of Japan will likely hike rates in MarchMarcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific for Capital Economics, discusses the outlook for the Bank of Japan's monetary policy.
Persons: Marcel Thieliant Organizations: Email Capital, Bank of, Capital Economics, Bank Locations: Bank of Japan, Asia, Pacific
The hottest housing market in America is poised to see continued price gains, according to Capital Economics. The firm said strong employment trends bode well for the housing market in the south. "We think the southern markets will continue to outperform over the next few years," Capital Economics said. AdvertisementAmerica's hottest housing market will see more price gains over the course of the next few years, according to Capital Economics. The research firm said in a note on Monday that America's southern housing market is poised to see continued strength thanks to two big trends: strong employment and relative affordability.
Persons: bode, , Thomas Ryan Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Business Locations: America
New property sales reached a total of 1.06 trillion yuan ($147 billion) in the first two months of this year, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday. The drop also marks a much faster pace of decline from the year-ago period, when new property sales dipped just 0.1%. Property investment fell 9% in the January-to-February period, which was faster than the 5.7% decrease registered during the same period last year. “The correction in property construction is still in its early stages,” Capital Economics analysts said in a research note on Monday. The growth in factory output might be driven by strong exports demand.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN —, , , Louise Loo, ” Loo, Zhiwei Zhang Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, National Bureau of Statistics, Capital, Catering, , Oxford Economics Locations: China, Hong Kong
A second Trump presidential term poses a risk to Mexico's status as the US's top trade partner. According to Capital Economics, Trump 2.0 threatens Mexico's newly gained status. In a Tuesday note, Capital Economics strategists said much of the impact would hinge on whether the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal remains intact. To Capital Economics, Mexico is one of the most vulnerable emerging markets as far as repercussions to this potential move. Mexico's trade with the US accounts for about one-third of its GDP.
Persons: Trump, , Donald Trump, USMCA Organizations: Trump, Capital Economics, Service, Capital, North America Free Trade, US Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers Locations: Mexico, China, Canada, US, shoring
China's surge in exports means a trade conflict is likely under either presidential candidate, Capital Economics said. The nation now makes up 15% of global manufacturing exports, which it will have to unload onto US consumers. He sees it as a consequence of the pandemic, when outsized lockdown demand ignited China's manufacturing sector, and output has jumped over 25% since 2019. Miller estimated that a trade war could start as soon as next year. During his tenure in the White House, he led a tit-for-tat trade war with Beijing, with many of its policies still in place under President Joe Biden.
Persons: , Mr Trump, Neil Shearing, Shearing, Leland Miller, it's, They're, they're, Miller, Donald Trump's, Trump, Joe Biden Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, White, Washington, Capital, Democrat, CNBC Locations: China, Beijing, Europe
A picture taken on August 14, 2018 shows the logo of Turkey's Central Bank at the entrance of its headquarters in Ankara, Turkey. Turkey's central bank is opting for a different monetary tightening method as it grapples with climbing inflation, after previously signaling that its rate-hiking cycle was over. The institution sent a directive to lenders, effective Friday, instructing them to put parts of their required lira reserves into blocked accounts. Economic data platform Emerging Market Watch posted on X, describing the central bank as taking "another tightening step via reserve requirements." "Last week the CBRT tightened restrictions on lira loan growth, a move that would likely have a similar impact to an interest rate hike."
Persons: That's, Arda Tunca, Dan Murphy Organizations: Turkey's Central Bank, Reuters, CNBC, Capital Economics, FX, Economics Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Turkey's, Istanbul, Turkish, London
Capital Economics said weight-loss drugs could be game-changers for the world economy. Eventually, AI could supercharge the healthcare sector, so weight-loss drugs could be just the beginning. Capital Economics noted that share prices fell in 2023 for many fast-food companies as weight-loss drugs gained popularity, though some of those losses have since been pared. Weight-loss drugs and AIGLP-1 drugs' emergence, meanwhile, has happened alongside the explosion of artificial intelligence technology and hype. If so, the economic gains heralded by weight-loss drugs might be just the beginning."
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Eli Lilly Organizations: Service, Capital Economics, Nordisk, Organization, Economic Cooperation, Development Locations: Mexico, America, Denmark, Korea
Measured year over year, producer prices rose by 1.6% in February, the most since last September. Core wholesale prices rose 0.3%, down from a 0.5% jump the previous month. Photos You Should See View All 60 ImagesThe producer price index can provide an early read on where consumer inflation is headed. Compared with a year earlier, prices rose 3.2%, up from a 3.1% increase rise the previous month. Still, February's acceleration in producer prices suggested that inflation could stay elevated into the spring.
Persons: Biden, Joe Biden's, doesn't, Jerome Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, , Federal Reserve, The Labor Department, Fed, Capital Economics, CPI, Wall Locations: United States
Fed officials have said rate cuts are coming soon, but inflation must still cool further. Markets are placing the greatest odds on a rate cut in June, fed fund futures show. AdvertisementFederal Reserve officials have said interest rate cuts are coming this year, but there's not an exact date in their outlook just yet. Those expectations were little changed after Tuesday's inflation report, which showed CPI came in hotter than expected in February. Reducing our policy rate too soon could result in requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent in the longer run."
Persons: , there's, CME's, Jerome Powell, " Neel Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Federal, Bank of America, Capital, Capital Economics, Labor
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